The British expert described three future scenarios: from a world war to Ukraine’s membership in the EU

Ukrainian and British parliamentarian teams have developed three scenarios for the future events development to flag threats and challenges in advance and be able to respond to them.

This was voiced by Caroline Baylon, Director, All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations (Great Britain) at the 15th annual Kyiv Security Forum, established by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s “Open Ukraine” Foundation.

“We have developed three possible scenarios, and we can discuss their impact on democracy and national unity,” Baylon said.

The first scenario is that of a world war when Western partners can no longer provide Ukraine with sufficient military aid because of the global economic crisis. As a result, Russia can gain impressive success in Ukraine, with the impact thereof spilling over to Moldova and Estonia.

The second scenario is autocracy in Ukraine. Ukraine can withstand Russia and regain its territories in the borders of 2022, and then sign a peace agreement. The threat, nevertheless, remains, and certain authoritarian tendencies get hold of Ukraine, and corruption persists. At the time of restoring and rebuilding the country, controversies with the West can upscale.

The third scenario means unity. Russia’s deeds bring the opposite effect to the one desired, Russia cannot break the spirit of Ukrainians, and their determination to fight is invincible. Russia wants to split up NATO and the EU, but they stand more united then ever and embrace new members, including Ukraine. Russia gets weaker, and some separatist regions start rising against Moscow.

“In the third scenario, we concentrated on the need for Ukraine to fight corruption in an organized manner and have the strong political will to do so. Then the world and investors will know that their money is being spent wisely. Membership in the EU may potentially accelerate reforms,” she says.

In addition, the parliamentarian noted that the above scenario also highlights the problems that may face Ukraine in future when reintegrating Crimea and Donbas, the regions remaining for a long time under Russian occupation.

“People in other areas of Ukraine may not completely trust those who reside in Donbas or Crimea, they may perceive them as collaborators. And it is in this scenario that we also envisage political will of the government to ensure national unity. We need to find a certain equilibrium in these matters and highlight cases of attempted resistance in those regions,” the expert says.

Baylon paid special attention to countering disinformation, in particular in the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine, because if Russian propaganda succeeds, this can significantly affect the course and progress of the war.

Noteworthy, the 15^th annual Kyiv security forum “For Our and Your Freedom/ Fighting for NATO” will be held on May 25-26, 2023, with the participation of well-known international figures. In particular, at the Forum, the KSF Security Council will be established and a policy document will be adopted with recommendations for the NATO summit in Vilnius to be held this July.